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Meet new WHO/TDR Fellow Dr Juan Sebastián Hurtado Zapata

We are pleased to introduce Dr Juan Sebastián Hurtado Zapata, who will be at IDDO for 12 months as part of the World Health Organization’s Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (WHO TDR). We host two WHO/TDR Fellows every year, as part of the capacity building that is integral to our mission. 

Dr Juan Sebastián Hurtado Zapata

Juan is one of two fellows who joined us in 2025 – find out more about Dr Nathalie Beloum, our other WHO/TDR fellow the same year.

Juan is a medical doctor from Colombia and an epidemiologist at Universidad del Valle, with extensive experience in public health and infectious disease research. He is a qualified field epidemiologist, with specialist training from the National Health Institute of Colombia, supported by the CDC and TEPHINET. 

Here Juan shares why he applied for the WHO/TDR Fellowship, the projects he is working on, and how he hopes this learning will shape his career and benefit his home institution and colleagues back in Colombia.

Juan with colleagues marking international day of dengue virus mosquito
Juan with colleagues to mark  international day against the dengue virus mosquito 

 

You are a researcher as well as physician, tell us more about your work.

In 2021, I was a research assistant for the WHO Solidarity Trial Vaccine Project within the Centro Internacional de Entrenamiento e Investigaciones Médicas (CIDEIM), a Colombian private non-profit organisation which conducts research on infectious diseases.  I went on to work on other CIDEIM projects, including collaborating with the Valle del Cauca Health Department (first administrative geographical division) to evaluate the epidemiological and microbiological behaviour of the dengue virus in Valle del Cauca, a diverse region in western Colombia. 

I carried out biostatistical analyses of patient data for a US National Institute of Health-funded study on the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in minority populations, specifically transgender women in Cali (the capital city of Valle del Cauca in Colombia). I identified factors associated with malaria recurrence in Colombian Indigenous and Afro-Colombian populations in Pueblo Rico, Risaralda, using epidemiological surveillance data. 

In addition to research, I was a medical assistant in a high-complexity institution in Cali, Colombia. I have a special interest in and engage in activities related to stewardship, antimicrobial resistance, and clinical epidemiology.

Field work with the National Institute of Health of Colombia, COVID-19 Pandemic. April 2021
Field work with the National Institute of Health of Colombia, COVID-19 Pandemic. April 2021
Field Epidemiology Training Program, NIH Colombia, CDC, TEPHINET (Advanced level), 2022
Field Epidemiology Training Program, NIH Colombia, CDC, TEPHINET (Advanced level), 2022

Why did you apply for the TDR/WHO Fellowship?

I have always been concerned with the significant impact of infectious diseases, particularly on vulnerable populations in Colombia. This includes sexually transmitted infections, arboviruses and parasitic diseases such as malaria. The information physicians collect daily, or that is already available, can really help identify patterns and conditions related to pathogen transmission in a community, and they can also address gaps in timely disease detection.  During the COVID-19 pandemic, I participated in many meetings about how to identify, prevent, mitigate and predict the disease’s impact. The constant flow of information and data underscored the need to use these effectively to evaluate existing interventions and identify indicators for more effective interventions. I now want to strengthen my applied expertise in using interdisciplinary data analysis tools to address public health problems with high social impact.

This is because routine surveillance data can be quite powerful – they’re mostly used to generate descriptive reports highlighting endemic channels and unusual trends, but inferential analyses of this data can identify critical risk factors needing immediate intervention, as well as uncovering important research questions to explore over the longer term. 

I want to use this fellowship so that I can use data from my country’s public health surveillance systems fieldwork to evaluate structural interventions processes for diseases such as malaria, leishmaniasis and dengue. By using new analytical models, tools and data analyses, I hope to evaluate public health research gaps, and identify future research, using continuously updated, responsive data. I also plan strengthen my skills in data science statistical modelling and reproducible research. My goals are centred on: 

  • Learning how large international collaborations manage and analyse complex datasets
  • Building bridges between IDDO and other collaborative groups with institutions in Colombia
Juan presenting his work at a conference
Juan presenting his work at the National Health Public Symposium, Cali, 2023

What projects will you be working on during your time with IDDO?

My first project is on visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Brazil, one of the countries most affected by this neglected tropical disease. VL is severe and often fatal if not treated promptly, and many of the affected patients live in remote or underserved areas. For this project, we are building a retrospective cohort using SINAN, Brazil’s national surveillance system. This includes all confirmed VL cases between 2007 and 2023. We are interested in the delay between symptom onset and the start of treatment, and how this delay is associated with the risk of death.

Public health bodies are generally aware that delaying VL treatment is detrimental, but they don’t have any specific information to guide them.

We want to find out how treatment delay differs across the population and varies by clinical and epidemiological variables such as geographic region, ethnicity, age, sex, etc. Identifying which groups are most affected by long delays between symptom and treatment will provide robust, region-specific evidence that Brazilian health authorities can use to improve case-finding, referral pathways and clinical management for VL.

Our analyses aim to answer questions such as when the delay becomes particularly hazardous, how the risk of death increases with each additional week of symptoms, and which groups are most affected, providing actionable insights that health authorities can actually use in their health policy decisions. 

My second project evaluates artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) for children under five who have uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, especially with higher parasite load. We already know that malaria treatments are more likely to fail in patients with very high parasite loads, and this may contribute to the spread of antimalarial resistance. 

So here we are pooling individual patient data from many ACT clinical trials of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria. We will use different methods and statistical models to unpick relationship between parasite density and the risk of malaria symptoms coming back. We aim to identify a parasite-density threshold above which patients have at least a 10% risk of treatment failure, and to estimate how common such high-risk infections are across different transmission settings and age groups. 

A key issue is that many high-risk patients are currently unrecognised. ACTs are now part of standard treatment for uncomplicated malaria, but we still don’t fully understand how it works with extremely high parasite densities. By defining a clear parasite density threshold associated with high failure risk, we can help clinicians identify these high-risk patients who need more than the usual regimen. The WHO-defined threshold is that treatment failures exceeding 10% warrant consideration of new therapeutic options for standard treatment. 

Both of these projects connect advanced data analysis with practical questions in real health systems. They both also tackle diseases that are very prevalent in many low- and middle-income countries. By transforming surveillance and clinical trial data into new evidence, both of these projects support better, earlier and more equitable patient care.

What are you most looking forward to over the next year?

I’m most looking forward to a mix of learning, connecting and settling in. Professionally, I’m excited to deepen my skills in advanced epidemiological methods, data science and statistical modelling, and becoming much more confident with large, complex datasets. I’d like to take full advantage of the seminars, workshops and course offered by University of Oxford - not just at IDDO but across the University. I am looking forward to learn new techniques and see how people from different disciplines think about infectious diseases and data

I’m also keen to get better at English, particularly in scientific writing and everyday chats, so I can share my ideas more effectively and engage more fully in discussions and collaborations. I’m also excited about the possibility of forming connections with mentors, colleagues and others. For instance, I’ve had the chance to meet Colombians working at the Pandemic Science Institute, with diverse roles and viewpoints on public health and epidemiology. I think this could really help me move towards new goals and propose ideas for the future. 

Lastly, I’m looking forward to feeling more at home in Oxford: getting to know the city better, discovering my favourite spots to read or work and finding a good balance between my intense academic life and enjoying this unique experience.

How will this benefit your career and home institution?

This Fellowship will strengthen my skills in advanced epidemiological methods, data processing and analysis, and using innovative tools for large and complex datasets. It will give me hands-on experience in applying these methods to real-world infectious disease problems, and in working within an international, multidisciplinary research environment. These are essential skills for me to become a more independent researcher, able to design, lead and communicate data-driven projects, and to mentor others too. Overall, all of this helps me make a more effective contribution to evidence-based decision-making in infectious diseases and public health.

I plan to apply and share what I learn both within and beyond CIDEIM. The knowledge and experience gained during the Fellowship will help strengthen the Epidemiology and Biostatistics Research Unit, particularly in data management, analysis and the better use of existing data resources. By incorporating advanced epidemiological methods, deepening on data analysis techniques into our research protocols, we will be able to generate more robust evidence to inform interventions.

Together with this unit and the Research Promotion and Development Unit, I intend to disseminate what I have learnt through workshops, seminars and short courses. These capacity building efforts will enhance our institutional capabilities and help foster a culture of innovation, continuous learning and collaboration.

What is your first impression of Oxford?

I was struck by Oxford’s remarkable tranquility despite its academic vibrancy. Its many bicycles and pedestrians prompted a shift in my street crossing habits! Its efficient public transport system and the widespread use of buses means that everybody can get around easily regardless of their status, offering a sense of safety and quiet. 

Coming from a warm, tropical climate, I’ve also been amused by how quickly the weather can change here. I’ve learned that leaving the house without an umbrella is something that never you must do! Another funny thing for me is how early many places close compared with Colombia; I’m used to doing things later in the evening, so discovering that shops and cafés may already be closing while it’s still light outside has been a small cultural shock. At the same time, I enjoy the mix of very old buildings and young students everywhere. I would like to explore more of Oxford beyond the main tourist spots: small cafés where people go to study or chat, quiet corners by the river, and the less known colleges or green spaces where you can sit and read. I’m also curious to discover more of the cultural life here local markets, music, maybe a bit of theatre and to understand better how the city changes with the different terms and seasons.

On a personal and professional level, I want to explore more of the academic environment: seminars in other departments, public lectures, and opportunities to meet people working on different aspects of global health and data science. I think these spaces are a great way to get new ideas, make connections, and feel part of the wider Oxford community, not just the place where I work.

And finally…

Looking back on the whole process—from planning the application to now being in Oxford—it feels like a long, thoughtful journey that suddenly became very real. Putting together the application made me pause and think about my work in Colombia and what I truly wanted to achieve in the next part of my career. Once I was selected, the focus shifted to more practical questions like visas, flights, accommodation and how to organise my responsibilities at home so I could make the most of this opportunity without leaving anything behind.

Arriving in Oxford was both exciting and a bit overwhelming: a new city, a new institution, new colleagues and, of course, a very different climate and pace of life compared with Colombia. What has really helped is the warm welcome from the team at IDDO and the feeling that people are genuinely interested in my background and where I come from. Little by little, I’m learning how things work here, from the bus routes to the coffee spots and seminar schedules.  I am starting to build a routine that combines work, study and enjoying the city. For me, this year is not only about technical training, but also about adapting to a new environment, building connections and growing personally and professionally.

Data platform will play a vital role in future VL research

A new publication authored by IDDO’s Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) Scientific Advisory Committee sets out a research agenda for VL, and describes how IDDO established and developed a data platform that enables data reuse for crucial historical data. 

Children sitting under tree in region of India

The VL data hosted in the IDDO platform can play a vital role furthering knowledge on treatment safety and efficacy for this neglected tropical disease, say researchers.

The paper, The development of a global research agenda and individual participant data platform for Visceral Leishmaniasis: Challenges and future opportunities, has been published in the journal Parasites & Vectors, and sets out the key steps in setting up and developing the platform, its challenges, and how it can support future research.

The WHO recognises VL (also known as Kala azar) as a neglected tropical disease. The disease mostly affects poorer populations, and has historically received too little investment in research, drug development, and health services.

IDDO VL Scientific Advisory Committee member Professor Shyam Sundar, from the Banaras Hindu University, India, said: “Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a devastating disease that is fatal without treatment. With limited investment in research and drug development, current therapies remain decades old. The IDDO VL platform was established as a shared, inclusive resource—underpinned by an equitable governance framework—to help address this critical gap. It provides a vital foundation for generating new evidence and supporting any future drug development. At its core, the platform champions collaborative science; enables researchers worldwide to ask pressing public health questions; maximises the value of existing datasets, and promotes data reuse to accelerate progress.”

Professor Sundar is a leading VL authority who has been at the forefront of drug development in VL and formulation of global treatment policy.

IDDO’s Dr Prabin Dahal, who leads the IDDO VL Platform, said “Historical data is a potential untapped resource to answer crucial questions about VL that can help provide the evidence needed for better patient treatments. It can uncover information in the same way as a clinical study, but is much, much cheaper. IDDO has been privileged to receive a global support from remarkable VL scientists to further our understanding on different aspects of treatment safety and efficacy, which would have not been possible in a standalone trial.”

This is where IDDO played a pivotal role - by collaborating with scientists and researchers in endemic countries, a VL data platform was established. The platform development involved several critical steps: reviewing the literature to identify relevant therapeutic studies; collaborating with the research community and stakeholders to develop a research agenda and identify priority questions; and inviting the researchers to contribute individual participant data. 

Prof Ahmed Mudawi Musa, a globally recognised expert on VL from the University of Khartoum, Sudan, and key figure in control of the disease in East Africa, said: “One of the key challenges in developing the IDDO VL platform was the difficulty of retrieving data from older studies, many of which remained in paper records. Despite this, the platform now hosts data from more than 50 VL and PKDL studies and almost 15,000 patients, reaching a critical mass to answer pressing public health questions. It stands as both a vital research tool and a neutral venue for archiving data for the future.”

IDDO has developed the VL data platform in collaboration with researchers from Indian sub-continent, East Africa, South America and the Mediterranean region. IDDO’s team curated the data into a standardised format, provided a transparent data governance framework, and worked with the disease’s scientific community through an equitable data ownership model where investigators who generated the primary study remain the data controller and are engaged in subsequent scientific projects when their shared data is utilised.

Dr Sauman Singh-Phulgenda, who led the development of the IDDO VL data platform, said: “We hope our experiences and description of the underlying processes of the VL platform development will provide insights to colleagues working in other scientific disciplines. This is a remarkable effort from the global VL community and we remain grateful for the time and resources dedicated by the VL research community towards this common cause.”

In the Indian Subcontinent, the disease is in elimination and post-elimination phases. The burden has now shifted to East Africa, where transmission remains high and there is an expressed need for new drug regimens for the management of VL and PKDL. But maintaining the necessary financial and political commitments to achieve and sustain complete elimination remains challenging- like many NTDs, VL research is constrained by limited funding and recent drug development has involved partnerships between not-for-profit organisations and the pharmaceutical industry. 

 

About Visceral Leishmaniasis

VL, also known as kala-azar, is transmitted to humans through bites from infected female phlebotomine sand flies. If left untreated, it is fatal in 95% of cases. Globally, it is estimated that there are up to 22,000 new cases of VL each year which occur in Brazil, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan.

As of Jan-2025, the IDDO VL platform is the largest global data bank for this disease, with harmonised records from nearly 15,000 individual patient records from over 50 studies. 

Find out more about accessing the VL data

 

Read the full paper: The development of a global research agenda and individual participant data platform for Visceral Leishmaniasis: Challenges and future opportunities

 

 

About us

About VL

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a debilitating neglected tropical disease (NTD). Left untreated, it is fatal in over 95% of cases. Each year, it affects an estimated 50,000 to 90,000 people, mostly in the world’s poorest communities. 

There is no single treatment for VL that is universally effective, safe, affordable and practical in the field: the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends different regimens in the Indian subcontinent and eastern Africa, reflecting variations in regional treatment outcomes. 

Treatments must also be adapted to patient groups such as children, people who are malnourished, and those living with HIV. But optimising treatment and supporting new drug registration is challenging - VL trials enrol relatively few patients, and they need  to meet specific eligibility criteria in  many different locations. 

Like many diseases of poverty, decisions about VL treatment are often based on limited evidence. To give patients the best chance, researchers and policy-makers need access to all available global data to enable robust analyses and strengthen our understanding of how to fight this infection. 

Find out more about VL in the WHO’s VL factsheet – Leishmaniasis 

we do this by:

Maintaining an ever-growing VL database of over 10,000 individual patient records – available for free, to any nonprofit researcher across the world. All of the data in IDDO’s repositories is harmonised to international standard (CDISC STDTM) recognised by international regulatory agencies. Access data 

Maintaining the VL Surveyor: With data from over 150 published trials, our VL surveyor is an open-access interactive tool that allows you to map VL clinical trails and visualise the global research landscape for VL. It is based on our periodically updated systematic review. Use the VL surveyor

Bringing together VL study groups: collaborative research partnerships with scientists worldwide,  who pool data and carry out individual participant data meta-analyses, answering key questions to better support VL patients. Collaborate with VL study groups

Guiding the global VL research agenda

 

Governance

The IDDO visceral leishmaniasis theme’s scientific direction is led by an independent VL scientific advisory committee, made up of internationally recognised experts in VL research, policy and funding. Explore the VL Scientific Advisory Committee 

An independent IDDO board and the IDDO Secretariat oversee all of IDDO’s activities – find out more about IDDO’s governance 

We encourage data contributors to delegate data access decisions to an independent data access committee, chaired by the World Health Organization Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Disease (WHO TDR) though data contributors can also choose to make decisions on access to their data themselves. Explore the IDDO data access committee 

Questions

Email us at info@iddo.org 

Visceral leishmaniasis

VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS
Child on bench, credit Anita Khemka DNDi
Disease Platform
ABOUT VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS
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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease that threatens tens of thousands of people each year, mostly in the world’s poorest communities. Left untreated, it is fatal in over 95% of cases. 

At IDDO, we work with the global VL research community to pool and harmonise clinical trial data, creating stronger evidence to improve treatments and support new drug development. Together, we also develop the tools, resources and research agendas that drive better VL research and save lives. 

group_of_children_pakistan_Credit_Dan Casperz_DFID
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STUDY GROUPS
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We bring together VL researchers worldwide in collaborative study groups to identify the most important questions for patient benefit. We then build on this with our expertise in curating and standardising data, which enables individual participant data meta-analyses  

Health clinic Credit Aisha Farquir, World Bank
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VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS TEAM

Design, Conduct, Analysis, and Reporting of Therapeutic Efficacy Studies in Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Systematic Review of Published Reports, 2000–2021

Submitted by Sam McGregor on
The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
2 Jul 2024
Author(s)
Prabin Dahal, Sauman Singh-Phulgenda, Caitlin Naylor, Matthew Brack, Mitali Chatterjee, Fabiana Alves, Philippe J. Guerin and Kasia Stepniewska

A systematic review (SR) of published efficacy studies in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) was undertaken to describe methodological aspects of design, conduct, analysis, and reporting. Studies published during 2000–2021 and indexed in the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory VL library of clinical studies were eligible for inclusion (N = 89 studies). Of the 89 studies, 40 (44.9%) were randomized, 33 (37.1%) were single-armed, 14 (15.7%) were nonrandomized multiarmed studies, and randomization status was unclear in two (2.2%). After initial screening, disease confirmation was done by microscopy in 26 (29.2%) and by a combination of serology and microscopy in 63 (70.8%). Post-treatment follow-up duration was <6 months in three (3.3%) studies, 6 months in 75 (84.3%), and >6 months in 11 (12.4%) studies. Confirmation of relapse was solely based on clinical suspicion in four (4.5%) studies, parasitological demonstration in 64 (71.9%), using molecular/serological/parasitological method in 6 (6.7%), and there was no information in 15 (16.9%). Of the 40 randomized studies, sample size calculation was reported in only 22 (55.0%) studies. This review highlights substantial variations in definitions adopted for disease diagnosis and therapeutic outcomes suggesting a need for a harmonized trials protocol.

Blood transfusion in the care of patients with visceral leishmaniasis: a review of practices in therapeutic efficacy studies

Submitted by Sam McGregor on
Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
1 May 2024
Author(s)
Prabin Dahal, Sauman Singh-Phulgenda, James Wilson, Glaucia Cota, Koert Ritmeijer, Ahmed Musa, Fabiana Alves, Kasia Stepniewska, Philippe J Guerin

Abstract

Blood transfusion remains an important aspect of patient management in visceral leishmaniasis (VL). However, transfusion triggers considered are poorly understood. This review summarises the transfusion practices adopted in VL efficacy studies using the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory VL clinical trials library. Of the 160 studies (1980–2021) indexed in the IDDO VL library, description of blood transfusion was presented in 16 (10.0%) (n=3459 patients) studies. Transfusion was initiated solely based on haemoglobin (Hb) measurement in nine studies, combining Hb measurement with an additional condition (epistaxis/poor health/clinical instability) in three studies and the criteria was not mentioned in four studies. The Hb threshold range for triggering transfusion was 3–8 g/dL. The number of patients receiving transfusion was explicitly reported in 10 studies (2421 patients enrolled, 217 underwent transfusion). The median proportion of patients who received transfusion in a study was 8.0% (Interquartile range: 4.7% to 47.2%; range: 0–100%; n=10 studies). Of the 217 patients requiring transfusion, 58 occurred before VL treatment initiation, 46 during the treatment/follow-up phase and the time was not mentioned in 113. This review describes the variation in clinical practice and is an important initial step in policy/guideline development, where both the patient's Hb concentration and clinical status must be considered.

 

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Dr Juan Hurtado-Zapata

Juan
Hurtado-Zapata
Dr Juan Hurtado-Zapata
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Visceral leishmaniasis

Juan is a physician with a master's degree in epidemiology and certified as a field epidemiologist by the National Institute of Health of Colombia, Tephinet, and the CDC. He has experience in clinical care, public health, and research. Juan currently works at CIDEIM in Colombia as a medical researcher, specifically focusing on malaria recurrence and malaria associations with climate change. Other responsibilities include biostatistical analysis and data management. 

His research career focuses on analytical methodologies that integrate data from public health surveillance and clinical care to strengthen evidence-based interventions. Juan is currently a TDR/WHO Clinical Research and Leadership Fellow at IDDO. His participation in IDDO is based on learning about neglected tropical diseases such as leishmaniasis and malaria using methodologies for data analysis and management, combining information from national surveillance systems and clinical research for early detection and response to infectious disease threats, including results for decision-making in public health policies.

View his publications on ORCID

IDDO’s team looks forward to sharing its latest research at ASTMH

Join IDDO and WWARN’s researchers at this year’s American Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene (ASTMH) in where we will be presenting on Visceral Leishmaniasis, malaria, COVID-19 and across symposia, oral presentations and posters.

ASTMH 2024 logo

Taking place in New Orleans, USA, this year IDDO will be at stand #104, as part of the Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford. Come and see us to find out about more about our research, data platforms and latest work.

IDDO’s team is hosting a symposium titled: ‘Improving the diagnosis and management of severe malaria’. Taking place on Saturday, November 16, at 8am (CST), the symposium will be chaired by IDDO’s Associate Director Dr James Watson and Dr Elizabeth George, who heads up the WWARN Severe Malaria theme, with presentations by:

  • Dr Peter Olumese (WHO) - The need to update WHO guidelines around severe malaria
  • Dr Elizabeth George - Management of patients with severe malaria and the need for randomized trials in Africa 
  • Dr James Watson - Improving the diagnosis and triage of patients with suspected severe malaria
  • Prof Sir Nick White - Pre-referral treatment for severe malaria
  • Prof Arjen Dondorp - Pathophysiology of severe malaria: updates
  • Prof Kamija Phiri - Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention: from policy to practice

IDDO’s talks include Dr James Wilson, who will talk about his work, ‘Peering into the Crystal Ball - Predicting Outcomes in Visceral Leishmaniasis, in Scientific Session 128: Clinical Tropical Medicine: Neglected Tropical Diseases’, on Saturday, November 16, at 12.45pm (CST).

While Dr Prabin Dahal will present his work, Severe Anaemia and Haemoglobin Trajectory following Treatment of Visceral Leishmaniasis: An Individual patient data meta-analysis using the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory Data Platform, in Scientific Session 168 on Sunday, November 17, at 8am (CST).

Our collaborators will also be presenting their work, look out for:

Professor Joel Tarning, head of WWARN Pharmacometric Modelling and Head of Clinical Pharmacology at MORU Bangkok, will present his latest work in symposium: Neglected tropical diseases: Getting the dose right, on Thursday Nov 14, from 10.15am (CST) in room 357.

PARMA Symposium #62, organised by the Malaria Branch, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, titled Falling Dominoes: Antimalarial Resistance Proliferation in East and Central Africa. It takes place on Friday, November 15, from 10.15am (CST) at the Convention Center Hall I-2 (first floor)

Professor Joel Tarning will give a rapid oral talk on: Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Modeling of Monthly Tafenoquine in Healthy Vietnamese Volunteers for Malaria Prophylaxis and Elimination on Friday Nov 15, from 10.15am (CST) in room 393/394. This will also be in poster session C on Saturday, November 16.

 

IDDO and WWARN’s researchers are also presenting a number of posters at ASTMH

 

Poster Session A: Thursday, November 14, Noon – 1:45 pm (CST) 

  • Professor Joel Tarning: Group Dose-optimisation of the fixed-dose triple combination antimalarial therapy artemether-lumefantrine-amodiaquine
  • Professor Joel Tarning: Ivermectin and Anopheles Glutamate-Gated Chloride Ion Channel Interactions
  • Professor Joel Tarning: Pre-referral rectal artesunate in children with severe malaria: any benefit? 
  • Poster Session B, Friday, November 15, Noon – 1:45 pm (CST)
  • Professor Joel Tarning: Pharmacokinetic properties and mosquito-lethal effects of a novel long-lasting formulation of ivermectin in cattle
  • Professor Joel Tarning: Population pharmacokinetics of artemether–lumefantrine plus amodiaquine in patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria

 

Poster Session C, Saturday, November 16, 11 am – 12:45pm (CST)

  • Dr Prabin Dahal: Factors associated with Relapse in Visceral Leishmaniasis: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis using the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory Data Platform #8191
  • Professor Joel Tarning: Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Modeling of Monthly Tafenoquine in Healthy Vietnamese Volunteers for Malaria Prophylaxis and Elimination
  • Dr Prabin Dahal: Exploring the Impact of Randomised Controlled Trials Evaluating COVID-19 Therapeutics on Clinical Practice Guidelines

 

ASTMH takes place from November 13 to 17, at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, New Orleans, where thousands of researchers, scientists, physicians and global health experts are expected to attend. For more information view https://www.astmh.org/

If you are not able to join us in-person then why not follow what is happening at the conference over Twitter by following us on @IDDOnews

Read our latest news or email info@iddo.org with your questions.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for visceral leishmaniasis relapse

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Residents of Kashadaha village in Bangladesh
Rationale

In 2005, a WHO-supported Memorandum of Understanding was signed by the governments of Bangladesh, Nepal and India, confirming their commitment to the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem(1). Subsequent elimination efforts have led to a striking reduction in VL incidence in the Indian subcontinent (ISC), from over 50,000 reported cases in 2007 to 1,069 cases in 2022(2). Recent figures from India, once considered the most endemic country in the world for VL, report under 600 cases in 2023; down from approximately 900 cases in 2022(3). Among factors often cited for the campaign’s success include the lack of an established animal reservoir(4)

As elimination efforts transition to the post-validation phase, there is increasing focus on identifying and reducing infection reservoirs that persist following initial treatment success, including VL relapse and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL)(5). VL relapse cases are of particular public health concern due to the potential selection of parasites with increased infectivity(6) and drug resistance mutations(4). Defined as the recurrence of signs and symptoms of infection within 6 months of treatment and initial cure, VL relapse is frequently shown to be the most common cause of treatment failure in the ISC(7,8). Clinical efficacy studies evaluating the current first-line treatment of single-dose liposomal amphotericin B show relapse rates of approximately 3-4%(9), although this is likely an underestimate of the true relapse rate due to relatively healthy patients selected by restrictive inclusion criteria. Furthermore, a significant number of disease recurrences occur after 6-months of treatment(7,10)

Despite the importance of VL relapse both at the individual patient level and in the context of the elimination programme, relatively little is known about relapse risk factors in immunocompetent patients. In a recent update to the WHO Regional Strategic Framework for VL elimination, the diagnosis of relapse cases is recognised as a strategic priority, and that identifying relapse predictors represents a remaining gap in evidence(11)

To address this evidence gap, we intend to leverage individual patient data (IPD) from the IDDO VL data platform of clinical efficacy studies, to develop and internally validate a prognostic model predicting VL relapse in the ISC. We hope such a model can provide a useful bedside tool to identify patients at increased risk of relapse. Through stakeholder engagement, VL management guidelines could utilise such a model to target high-risk patients for intensive post-treatment follow-up. 

Objectives
  1. Develop a prognostic model predicting relapse for patients diagnosed with visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent (ISC: India, Nepal, Bangladesh)
  2. Perform internal validation of the prognostic model (to account for model overfitting)
  3. Present the model such that it can be used as a bedside clinical tool (e.g. as a risk score)

We anticipate developing at least two prognostic models: one including parasite smear grade, and one without parasite smear grade. This reflects the fact that many patients in the ISC are diagnosed without microbiological confirmation. 

Essential inclusion criteria

All curated studies shared in the IDDO VL data platform meet the following criteria:

  1. Studies performed in the Indian subcontinent (India, Nepal, Bangladesh)
  2. Clinical efficacy studies that prospectively recruited patients with a diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis (clinical symptoms with either parasitological or serological confirmation)
  3. Studies with treatment regimen available (at least drug(s) name, dose and duration)
  4. Studies with patient demographics available (at least age, sex)
  5. At least 6 months of active patient follow-up following initial treatment
  6. Studies reporting relapse (defined as new signs and/or symptoms of visceral leishmaniasis within 6 months of treatment completion in patients who achieved initial cure) 
Desirable criteria
  1. Studies with patient signs and symptoms available (e.g. duration of fever, presence and magnitude of weight loss, splenomegaly, hepatomegaly, fever and other vital signs at baseline)
  2. Studies with blood and/or urine tests available (e.g. haemoglobin, renal function tests, liver function tests, platelet count, white blood cell count, pregnancy test)
  3. Microbiological investigations (e.g. splenic smear grade, bone marrow smear grade)
  4. Presence of a published study protocol and final manuscript
  5. Information on concomitant illness (e.g. malaria, tuberculosis, HIV)
Data standardisation and analysis

All studies will be curated to the CDISC SDTM standard(12), adapted by IDDO for visceral leishmaniasis(13).

To meet the first objective, the outcome of relapse and important predictors (as described in the essential and desirable criteria above) will be identified in an exploratory analysis. A sample size calculation will guide the number of predictors such a model can support(14). A full protocol will then be published on PROSPERO. 

We aim to account for clustering at the study level by using a random intercept model (multilevel model). Multiple imputations will be used to impute important missing predictors. Established guidelines for the development and validation of prediction models will be adhered to(15,16)

Study group governance

The study group consists of investigators who provide relevant studies for the pooled analysis, and investigators contributing statistical or disease-specific support. Together, the group decides on the inclusion of additional studies, data analysis, and publication plans, in accordance with the IDDO/WWARN Publication Policy(17)

For further information please contact Dr James Wilson (james.wilson@iddo.org). 

References

1.            World Health Organization. Regional Strategic Framework for Elimination of Kala-azar from the South-East Asia Region (2005 - 2015). [Internet]. Delhi: WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia; 2005 [cited 2024 Oct 7]. Available from: https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/205825

2.            World Health Organization. The Global Health Observatory: Number of cases of visceral leishmaniasis reported. [Internet]. [cited 2024 Oct 7]. Available from: https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/number-of-cases-of-visceral-leishmaniasis-reported

3.            National Center for Vector Borne Diseases Control. Kala-azar Cases and Deaths in the Country since 2014 [Internet]. [cited 2024 Oct 22]. Available from: https://ncvbdc.mohfw.gov.in/index1.php?lang=1&level=2&sublinkid=5945&lid=3750

4.            Singh OP, Singh B, Chakravarty J, Sundar S. Current challenges in treatment options for visceral leishmaniasis in India: a public health perspective. Infect Dis Poverty. 2016 Dec;5(1):19. 

5.            Hirve S, Boelaert M, Matlashewski G, Mondal D, Arana B, Kroeger A, et al. Transmission Dynamics of Visceral Leishmaniasis in the Indian Subcontinent – A Systematic Literature Review. Chatterjee M, editor. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 Aug 4;10(8):e0004896. 

6.            Rai K, Cuypers B, Bhattarai NR, Uranw S, Berg M, Ostyn B, et al. Relapse after treatment with miltefosine for visceral leishmaniasis is associated with increased infectivity of the infecting Leishmania donovani strain. mBio. 2013 Oct 8;4(5):e00611-00613. 

7.            Goyal V, Das VNR, Singh SN, Singh RS, Pandey K, Verma N, et al. Long-term incidence of relapse and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis after three different visceral leishmaniasis treatment regimens in Bihar, India. Werneck GL, editor. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020 Jul 20;14(7):e0008429. 

8.            World Health Organization. Report of Meeting of the Regional Technical Advisory Group (‎RTAG)‎ on visceral leishmaniasis and the national visceral leishmaniasis programme managers of endemic member states. [Internet]. Regional Office for South-East Asia; 2020 [cited 2024 Oct 7]. Available from: https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/340612

9.            Chhajed R, Dahal P, Singh-Phulgenda S, Brack M, Naylor C, Sundar S, et al. Estimating the proportion of relapse following treatment of Visceral Leishmaniasis: meta-analysis using Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO) systematic review. The Lancet Regional Health - Southeast Asia. 2024 Mar;22:100317. 

10.         Burza S, Sinha PK, Mahajan R, Lima MA, Mitra G, Verma N, et al. Risk factors for visceral leishmaniasis relapse in immunocompetent patients following treatment with 20 mg/kg liposomal amphotericin B (Ambisome) in Bihar, India. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014;8(1):e2536. 

11.         World Health Organization. Regional strategic framework for accelerating and sustaining elimination of kala-azar in the South-East Asia Region, 2022-2026 [Internet]. New Delhi: World Health Organization, South-East Asian Region; 2022. Available from: https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/361887/9789290209812-eng.pdf

12.         Clinical Data Interchange Standards Consortium (CDISC). Study Data Tabulation Model (SDTM) [Internet]. [cited 2024 Oct 8]. Available from: https://www.cdisc.org/standards/foundational/sdtm

13.         Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO). New global collaboration developing standards for standardised data collection across the VL research community [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2024 Oct 8]. Available from: https://www.iddo.org/news/new-global-collaboration-developing-standards-standardised-data-collection-across-vl-research

14.         Riley RD, Snell KI, Ensor J, Burke DL, Harrell Jr FE, Moons KG, et al. Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: PART II binary and timetoevent outcomes. Statistics in Medicine. 2019 Mar 30;38(7):1276–96. 

15.         Collins GS, Reitsma JB, Altman DG, Moons KGM. Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD Statement. European Urology. 2015 Jun;67(6):1142–51. 

16.         Debray TPA, Collins GS, Riley RD, Snell KIE, Van Calster B, Reitsma JB, et al. Transparent reporting of multivariable prediction models developed or validated using clustered data (TRIPOD-Cluster): explanation and elaboration. BMJ. 2023 Feb 7;e071058. 

17.         Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO). IDDO/WWARN Policy on Data Use, Publication and Credit [Internet]. [cited 2024 Oct 8]. Available from: https://www.iddo.org/sites/default/files/2024-10/IDDO%20publication%20policy%20final2.pdf

 

Design, Conduct, Analysis, and Reporting of Therapeutic Efficacy Studies in Visceral Leishmaniasis: A Systematic Review of Published Reports, 2000–2021

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Published
2 Jul 2024
Authors
Prabin Dahal, Sauman Singh-Phulgenda, Caitlin Naylor, Matthew Brack, Mitali Chatterjee, Fabiana Alves, Philippe J. Guerin and Kasia Stepniewska

A systematic review (SR) of published efficacy studies in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) was undertaken to describe methodological aspects of design, conduct, analysis, and reporting. Studies published during 2000–2021 and indexed in the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory VL library of clinical studies were eligible for inclusion (N = 89 studies). Of the 89 studies, 40 (44.9%) were randomized, 33 (37.1%) were single-armed, 14 (15.7%) were nonrandomized multiarmed studies, and randomization status was unclear in two (2.2%). After initial screening, disease confirmation was done by microscopy in 26 (29.2%) and by a combination of serology and microscopy in 63 (70.8%). Post-treatment follow-up duration was <6 months in three (3.3%) studies, 6 months in 75 (84.3%), and >6 months in 11 (12.4%) studies. Confirmation of relapse was solely based on clinical suspicion in four (4.5%) studies, parasitological demonstration in 64 (71.9%), using molecular/serological/parasitological method in 6 (6.7%), and there was no information in 15 (16.9%). Of the 40 randomized studies, sample size calculation was reported in only 22 (55.0%) studies. This review highlights substantial variations in definitions adopted for disease diagnosis and therapeutic outcomes suggesting a need for a harmonized trials protocol.

Review summarises heterogeneity in design and analysis of visceral leishmaniasis clinical trials

A new systematic review, published in the American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene, summarises the heterogeneity in design and analysis of clinical trials for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) – information which can potentially help improve future trial designs.

men looking at document

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease that is transmitted by female sandflies. VL is the most severe of the three forms of leishmaniasis and is almost always fatal without treatment. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates there are between 50,000 to 90,000 new cases worldwide every year.

The review based on the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory (IDDO) VL library of published efficacy studies, described methodological aspect of design, conduct, analysis, and reporting from 89 studies published during 2000-2021.

The review highlighted substantial variations in definitions adopted for patient screening, disease diagnosis and therapeutic outcomes along with variability in inclusion and exclusion criteria adopted for patient enrolment.

One of the study authors Prabin Dahal said: “By studying existing literature, gaps in knowledge can be identified and research can be targeted at specific patient populations. For example, our review identified that patients with severe malnutrition or pregnant women were excluded in vast majority of the trials, highlighting limited evidence regarding treatment efficacy in this patient population.”

Prof Ahmed Musaa globally recognised expert on Visceral Leishmaniasis clinical trials design and conduct from the University of Khartoum, Sudan, stated: “This review is timely and provides a comprehensive overview of the existing methodological practices in VL trials from the literature. This can serve as a useful source of information regarding different aspects of trial to inform future designs. This is particularly important to maximise existing resources as undertaking randomised trials for novel drug regimens in VL remains a major challenge due to financial constraints and operational difficulties.”

Read the full paper: ‘Design, conduct, analysis, and reporting of therapeutic efficacy studies in Visceral Leishmaniasis: A systematic review of published reports, 2000-2021’ 

 

Blood transfusion in the care of patients with visceral leishmaniasis: a review of practices in therapeutic efficacy studies

Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Published
1 May 2024
Authors
Prabin Dahal, Sauman Singh-Phulgenda, James Wilson, Glaucia Cota, Koert Ritmeijer, Ahmed Musa, Fabiana Alves, Kasia Stepniewska, Philippe J Guerin

Abstract

Blood transfusion remains an important aspect of patient management in visceral leishmaniasis (VL). However, transfusion triggers considered are poorly understood. This review summarises the transfusion practices adopted in VL efficacy studies using the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory VL clinical trials library. Of the 160 studies (1980–2021) indexed in the IDDO VL library, description of blood transfusion was presented in 16 (10.0%) (n=3459 patients) studies. Transfusion was initiated solely based on haemoglobin (Hb) measurement in nine studies, combining Hb measurement with an additional condition (epistaxis/poor health/clinical instability) in three studies and the criteria was not mentioned in four studies. The Hb threshold range for triggering transfusion was 3–8 g/dL. The number of patients receiving transfusion was explicitly reported in 10 studies (2421 patients enrolled, 217 underwent transfusion). The median proportion of patients who received transfusion in a study was 8.0% (Interquartile range: 4.7% to 47.2%; range: 0–100%; n=10 studies). Of the 217 patients requiring transfusion, 58 occurred before VL treatment initiation, 46 during the treatment/follow-up phase and the time was not mentioned in 113. This review describes the variation in clinical practice and is an important initial step in policy/guideline development, where both the patient's Hb concentration and clinical status must be considered.